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Real Times for Real People
Thu November 5, 2009, 11:41 pm
by Bill Metzker
Real Times for Real People
Who wouldn't worry?

I quote from "Economic & Market Perspectives, a publication of Wells Capital Management:  " Many U.S. household balance sheets are probably weaker than any time since WWII. The savings rate has been declining since the mid-1980's, debt-to-income ratios are at record highs, and both housing values and stock investments have been hit hard."

OK, the quotation is out of context, because Wells is offering commentary for clients and managers regarding investments.  What does this statement have to do with people who may be facing foreclosure, or, barring that, are having nightmares and chronic stomach aches and fighting with their partners because they can't make mortgage payments?

And, suddenly, they have to very quickly understand what loan modifications are, what short sales are, what deed-in-lieu-of's are, and all that.

Wasn't it Edmund Burke who wrote, "These are the times that try mens' souls?"  Nothing, nothing nothing stresses families as a difficulty in making mortgage payments, mostly because that situation is on top of a whole lot of other bad stuff.  A reduction in hours. A two-month illness. Whatever.  In my experience, people make their mortgage payments and let other stuff go.

Here's a fact: A couple of months ago, I ran abstracts on several neighborhoods on owners who were upside down 110% and up. What struck me wasn't the number of upside down owners, but rather, how few of them had received a Notice of Default or had their homes listed for sale as evidenced by correlating data showing listings and notices.

People are trying to make their mortgage payments. Very few, IMO, decided to buy a home they could not afford just to see how things might work out. Most people intended to buy and hold.

And they are holding, based on how few properties are for sale in Portland Metro. Holding, treading water, and maybe getting tired.

 

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